Painting Lebanon Orange?

Several hundred thousand pro-Syrian protestors hit the streets of Beirut on March 8th. Interestingly, the assembly was a counter-protest designed to show the international community that earlier protestors calling for Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon did not speak for all (or even for a majority) of Lebanese.

During the preceding week, tens of thousands of Lebanese Muslims, Christians, and Jews staged a Ukraine-esque protest in the wake of the February 14th car-bomb assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, allegedly by Syrian intelligence officers operating inside Lebanon. The pro-Syrian group (which assembled at the urging of Hizbullah) was estimated at seven times the size of the anti-Syrian group (who many outsiders have declared agents of reform and democratization).

One may question the math. One may question whether the international community should care about the aspirations of a group sponsored by the inventors of the suicide bomber, no matter its size. It would be a mistake to do either.

Conversely, one may question the assumption that the demand of the smaller group that Syria withdraw from Lebanon necessarily makes it pro-democratic. Does the fact that it appeared to mirror events in Ukraine last November mean that it shares the Orange Revolution's aspirations?

Although these points concerning the anti- and pro-Syrian groups are each deserving of scrutiny, they belie the more miraculous aspects of the weeks events in Lebanon. Who could have imagined the day when citizens of a pre-dominantly Muslim middle-eastern city would assemble in their tens of thousands, many holding pro-American signs? How about signs which—gasp—called on the great Satan, George W. Bush, to speak on their behalf? (Well, maybe Paul Wolfowitz and Donald Rumsfeld did dream of precisely that. Remember how the Iraqis were supposed to greet us with flower bouquets and oil barrels.)

On the other hand the Hizbullah protestors' detractors often seem to miss two very important points. First, the idea that the group would protest in such a non-violent manner at least gives some hope that peace, freedom, and humanity may have begun to check the advances of terrorism for the hearts and minds of the Muslim world. After all, just over twenty years ago Hizbullah sent that old cold warrior Ronald Reagan packing from Lebanon with a cowardly suicide bomb which killed over two hundred marines in their beds. Until Muslims begin to ponder the mutual exclusivity of freedom and terror the tide of history will continue to ebb and flow in the deadly manner of recent years.

Second, the decision of the pro-Syrians to mirror almost exactly the anti-Syrians' use of protest signs (in both Arabic and English!) and Lebanese flags speaks hidden volumes.

The most discernable difference between the two groups—more so than their numbers or their slogans—was their attire. The (mostly young) anti-Syrians were dressed in modern, western, attire; the pro-Syrians (mostly, but not entirely older), dressed in traditional Arab garb. The fashion-gap seems to at least suggest that, like science, the liberalization of Lebanon might gain ground one funeral at a time, with the passing of the older generations. Unfortunately, Hizbullah's history reveals the organization's proclivity to promote terror one suicide bomber, and several funerals, at a time. At least for now the Hizbullah surrogates' protests have been mostly peaceful—and, whether or not their numbers are equivalent, the sight of two large, polarized, Arab groups publicly expressing their respective political wills for an international audience without violence ensuing seems, somehow, intrinsically democratic. On March 9th Omar Karami, the pro-Syrian prime minister who had resigned last week under pressure of the anti-Syrian strategy, was asked by the parliament to form a new government. This may well seem, like the large pro-Syrian assembly the day before, another blow to the possibility of Lebanese (even Middle Eastern) modernization and reform. That is a pessimistic stance. If the give and take can remain peaceful—and if International efforts succeed in legitimizing the elections scheduled for May—there may yet be hope for Lebanon, once a very lonely beacon of democratic hope in the region.